Examining the Random Walk Hypothesis: An investigation of the Indian stock market

Abstract

Using the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as the theoretical foundation, this research study explores the Random Walk Hypothesis in the context of the Indian stock market. By using the Runs Test to analyse the daily closing prices of eight well-known Indian companies between January 1, 2018, and June 30, 2021, the study finds that patterns in stock prices in the Indian stock market show weak-form efficiency and are consistent with the Random Walk Hypothesis. The analysis indicates that stock price movements are largely unpredictable and devoid of discernible patterns, aligning with the notions posited by proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The research underscores significant implications, validating the presence of weak-form efficiency and emphasizing the need for alternative analytical approaches in investment strategies. Despite inherent limitations, this study contributes to ongoing discourse on market efficiency and financial dynamics, advocating for interdisciplinary approaches and global perspectives to refine understanding and facilitate more informed investment decisions in the Indian capital market.